Browsing by Author "Aguiar, M."
Now showing items 1-9 of 9
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Condition-specific mortality risk can explain differences in COVID-19 case fatality ratios around the globe
Aguiar, M.
; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-09)
Objectives With COVID-19 infections resulting in death according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and pre-existing health conditions enhancing disease severity, the objective of this study is to estimate the condition-specific ... -
Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID‑19 post‑lockdown dynamics
Aguiar, M.; BidaurrazagaVan‑Dierdonc, J.; Mar, J.; Cusimano, N.; Knopoff, D.; Anam, V.; Stollenwerk, N. (2021-07-06)
As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r(t) of an ... -
Ethics of a partially effective dengue vaccine: Lessons from the Philippines
Halstead, B.S.; Katzelnick, L.C.; Russell, P.K.; Markoff, L.; Aguiar, M.; Dans, L.R.; Dans A , L. (2020-07)
Dengvaxia, a chimeric yellow fever tetravalent dengue vaccine developed by SanofiPasteur is widely licensed in dengue-endemic countries. In a large cohort study Dengvaxia was found to partially protect children who had ... -
The Impact of Serotype Cross-Protection on Vaccine Trials: DENVax as a Case Study
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-11)
There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease ... -
Modeling COVID-19: Challenges and results
Aguiar, M. (2020-10)
Weird times we are living in. While lots of technological, medical and scientific advances are generated in a short period of time, we are now fighting a pandemic, trying to stop the spread of a new virus that has not only ... -
Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response
Aguiar, M.; Ortuondo, E.M.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Mar J; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-10)
In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so‐called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID‐19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working ... -
A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination
Aguiar, M.; Dosi, G.; Knopoff, D.A.; Virgillito, M.E. (2021)
Lockdown and vaccination policies have been the major concern in the last year in order to contain the SARS-CoV-2 infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we present a model able to evaluate alternative lockdown ... -
Reproduction ratio and growth rates: Measures for an unfolding pandemic
Aguiar, M.; Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck, J.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020-05)
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure that follows directly from data at hand, commonly used to infer the basic reproduction number. As the growth rates λ(t) of tested positive COVID-19 ... -
SHAR and effective SIR models: from dengue fever toy models to a COVID-19 fully parametrized SHARUCD framework
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020)
We review basic models of severe/hospitalized and mild/asymptomatic infection spreading (with classes of susceptibles S, hopsitalized H, asymptomatic A and recovered R, hence SHAR-models) and develop the notion of comparing ...