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dc.contributor.authorPepper N.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGerardo-Giorda L.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMontomoli F.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2019-11-07T13:55:05Z
dc.date.available2019-11-07T13:55:05Z
dc.date.issued2019-11-07
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11824/1040
dc.description.abstractInvasive species are recognized as a significant threat to biodiversity. The mathematical modeling of their spatio-temporal dynamics can provide significant help to environmental managers in devising suitable control strategies. Several mathematical approaches have been proposed in recent decades to efficiently model the dispersal of invasive species. Relying on the assumption that the dispersal of an individual is random, but the density of individuals at the scale of the population can be considered smooth, reaction-diffusion models are a good trade-off between model complexity and flexibility for use in different situations. In this paper we present a continuous reaction-diffusion model coupled with arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) to assess the impact of uncertainties in the model parameters. We show how the finite elements framework is well-suited to handle important landscape heterogeneities as elevation and the complex geometries associated with the boundaries of an actual geographical region. We demonstrate the main capabilities of the proposed coupled model by assessing the uncertainties in the invasion of an alien species invading the Basque Country region in Northern Spain.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipESPRC and Airbus iCASE (voucher 17000099)en_US
dc.formatapplication/pdfen_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherScientific Reportsen_US
dc.relationES/1PE/SEV-2017-0718en_US
dc.relationES/2PE/RTI2018-093416-B-I00en_US
dc.relationEUS/BERC/BERC.2018-2021en_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/es/en_US
dc.subjectSpatial ecologyen_US
dc.subjectInvasive speciesen_US
dc.subjectUncertainty quantificationen_US
dc.titleMeta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersalen_US
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleen_US
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-019-52763-9
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-52763-9en_US


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