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Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID‑19 post‑lockdown dynamics
As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r(t) of an ...
The Impact of Serotype Cross-Protection on Vaccine Trials: DENVax as a Case Study
There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease ...
Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response
In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so‐called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID‐19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working ...
Condition-specific mortality risk can explain differences in COVID-19 case fatality ratios around the globe
Objectives With COVID-19 infections resulting in death according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and pre-existing health conditions enhancing disease severity, the objective of this study is to estimate the condition-specific ...
Reproduction ratio and growth rates: Measures for an unfolding pandemic
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure that follows directly from data at hand, commonly used to infer the basic reproduction number. As the growth rates λ(t) of tested positive COVID-19 ...
SHAR and effective SIR models: from dengue fever toy models to a COVID-19 fully parametrized SHARUCD framework
We review basic models of severe/hospitalized and mild/asymptomatic infection spreading (with classes of susceptibles S, hopsitalized H, asymptomatic A and recovered R, hence SHAR-models) and develop the notion of comparing ...