Browsing Mathematical Modelling in Biosciences by Author "Aguiar, M."
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Conditionspecific mortality risk can explain differences in COVID19 case fatality ratios around the globe
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (202009)Objectives With COVID19 infections resulting in death according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and preexisting health conditions enhancing disease severity, the objective of this study is to estimate the conditionspecific ... 
Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID‑19 post‑lockdown dynamics
Aguiar, M.; BidaurrazagaVan‑Dierdonc, J.; Mar, J.; Cusimano, N.; Knopoff, D.A.; Anam, V.; Stollenwerk, N. (20210706)As the COVID19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r(t) of an ... 
Deterministic and Stochastic Dynamics of COVID19: The Case Study of Italy and Spain
Srivastav, A. K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (20220213)In December 2019, a severe respiratory syndrome (COVID19) caused by a new coronavirus (SARSCoV2) was identified in China and spread rapidly around the globe. COVID19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization ... 
Effect of General CrossImmunity Protection and Antibody Dependent Enhancement in Dengue Dynamics
Steindorf, V; Oliva, S.; Wu, J.; Aguiar, M. (20220213)A mathematical model to describe the dynamic of a multiserotype infectious disease at the population level is studied. Applied to dengue fever epidemiology, we analyse a mathematical model with time delay to describe the ... 
Ethics of a partially effective dengue vaccine: Lessons from the Philippines
Halstead, B.S.; Katzelnick, L.C.; Russell, P.K.; Markoff, L.; Aguiar, M.; Dans, L.R.; Dans A , L. (202007)Dengvaxia, a chimeric yellow fever tetravalent dengue vaccine developed by SanofiPasteur is widely licensed in dengueendemic countries. In a large cohort study Dengvaxia was found to partially protect children who had ... 
The Impact of Serotype CrossProtection on Vaccine Trials: DENVax as a Case Study
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (202011)There is a growing public health need for effective preventive interventions against dengue, and a safe, effective and affordable dengue vaccine against the four serotypes would be a significant achievement for disease ... 
Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: a 10year systematic review
Aguiar, M.; Anam, V.; Blyuss, K.; Estadilla, C. D. S.; Guerrero, B.; Knopoff, D.A.; Kooi, B. W.; Srivastav, A. K.; Steindorf, V.; Stollenwerk, N. (20220215)Mathematical models have a long history in epidemiological research, and as the COVID19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological ... 
Modeling COVID19: Challenges and results
Aguiar, M. (202010)Weird times we are living in. While lots of technological, medical and scientific advances are generated in a short period of time, we are now fighting a pandemic, trying to stop the spread of a new virus that has not only ... 
Modeling dengue immune responses mediated by antibodies: A qualitative study
Sebayang, A.A.; Fahlena, H.; Anam, V.; Knopoff, D.A.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.; Soewono, E. (20210901)Dengue fever is a viral mosquitoborne infection and a major international public health concern. With 2.5 billion people at risk of acquiring the infection around the world, disease severity is influenced by the immunological ... 
Modeling Dengue Immune Responses Mediated by Antibodies: Insights on the Biological Parameters to Describe Dengue Infections
Anam, V.; Sebayang, A.A.; Fahlena, H.; Knopoff, D.A.; Stollenwerk, N.; Soewono, E.; Aguiar, M. (20220318)Dengue fever is a viral mosquitoborne disease, a significant global health concern, with more than one third of the world population at risk of acquiring the disease. Caused by 4 antigenically distinct but related virus ... 
Modeling the initial phase of COVID19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain
Srivastav, A. K.; Stollenwerk, N.; Bidaurrazaga VanDierdonck, J.; Mar, J.; Ibarrondo, O.; Aguiar, M. (20220713)Declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID19 has spread rapidly around the globe. With eventually substantial global underestimation of infection, by the end of March 2022, more than 470 million ... 
Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response
Aguiar, M.; Ortuondo, E.M.; Bidaurrazaga VanDierdonck, J.; Mar J; Stollenwerk, N. (202010)In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so‐called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID‐19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working ... 
Modelling Holling type II functional response in deterministic and stochastic food chain models with mass conservation
Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M.; Kooi, B. W. (20220301)The RosenzweigMacArthur predatorprey model is the building block in modeling food chain, food webs and ecosystems. There are a number of hidden assumptions involved in the derivation. For instance the prey population ... 
A multiscale networkbased model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination
Aguiar, M.; Dosi, G.; Knopoff, D.A.; Virgillito, M.E. (2021)Lockdown and vaccination policies have been the major concern in the last year in order to contain the SARSCoV2 infection during the COVID19 pandemic. In this paper we present a model able to evaluate alternative lockdown ... 
Reproduction ratio and growth rates: Measures for an unfolding pandemic
Aguiar, M.; Bidaurrazaga VanDierdonck, J.; Stollenwerk, N. (202005)The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure that follows directly from data at hand, commonly used to infer the basic reproduction number. As the growth rates λ(t) of tested positive COVID19 ... 
The role of mild and asymptomatic infections on COVID19 vaccines performance: A modeling study
Aguiar, M.; Bidaurrazaga VanDierdonck, J.; Mar, J; Stollenwerk, N. (20211116)Introduction: Different COVID19 vaccine efficacies are reported, with remarkable effectiveness against severe disease. The so called sterilizing immunity, occurring when vaccinated individuals cannot transmit the virus, ... 
Seasonally Forced SIR Systems Applied to Respiratory Infectious Diseases, Bifurcations, and Chaos
Stollenwerk, N.; Spaziani, S.; Mar, J.; Knopoff, D.A.; Cusimano, N.; Anam, V.; Aguiar, M.; Eguiguren, I.; Srivastav, A. K. (20220303)We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models ... 
SHAR and effective SIR models: from dengue fever toy models to a COVID19 fully parametrized SHARUCD framework
Aguiar, M.; Stollenwerk, N. (2020)We review basic models of severe/hospitalized and mild/asymptomatic infection spreading (with classes of susceptibles S, hopsitalized H, asymptomatic A and recovered R, hence SHARmodels) and develop the notion of comparing ... 
Spatially Extended SHAR Epidemiological Framework of Infectious Disease Transmission
Knopoff, D.A.; Cusimano, N.; Stollenwerk, N.; Aguiar, M. (20220213)Mathematical models play an important role in epidemiology. The inclusion of a spatial component in epidemiological models is especially important to understand and address many relevant ecological and public health ...