Analysis of the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemics in Italy: a modeling study

Abstract

This thesis describes the first years of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. We started looking at the data given by the Italian Civil Protection and according to the trend we nally described the epidemiological curve through a SHAR model. In this model, the infection rate β changing according to different period that we identied during the rst year of pandemic. To model β, we have taken into account the effect of control measures (Lockdown, social distancing, protection devices) and seasonality.