Time-varying coefficient estimation in SURE models. Application to portfolio management.

Abstract

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator for a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations model with time-varying coefficients (tv-SURE) under very general conditions. Theoretical results together with a simulation study differentiates the cases for which the estimation of a tv-SURE outperforms the estimation of a Single Regression Equations model with time-varying coefficients (tv-SRE). The study shows that Zellner's results cannot be straightforwardly extended to the time-varying case. The tv-SURE is applied to the Fama and French five-factor model using data from four different international markets. Finally, we provide the estimation under cross-restriction and discuss a testing procedure.